Chronicle of a Death Foretold

An Essay written to make sense of the situation in Darjeeling after the grusome daylight murder of an opposition leader Madan Tamnag. It was first published in Sikkim Now, a english daily published from Gangtok, Sikkim on 26th May 2010. The essay is also available at Darjeeling Times .

Photo from Outlook India

It has been four days since the assassination of the All India Gorkha League (AIGL) President Madan Tamang. There have been some developments in the Darjeeling hills which are being interpreted as anti-Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) mood by commentators. The candle light vigil, the mass of people who joined the funeral procession are but welcome signs of a civil society that has been shaken awake.

In the opinion of this commentator, it would be pre-mature to read more into these developments as they are a result of the shock and dismay at the barbarism of the act. As much as all discerning observers wish to see such developments, it would be recommended that one wait for the dust to settle to see the evolving situation.

There are many ways in which the situation in Darjeeling could evolve. One is the path of escalation. With the naming of GJM leaders in the First Information Report (FIR), the resignation of the ‘intellectuals’ and the general resistance of the common folk, a cornered GJM would make efforts to raise the bogey of the ‘threat’ to Gorkhaland, the ‘West Bengal government to gain’ conspiracy to reiterate their relevance and spread rumors, conspiracy theories which thrive in a charged context. And the observed lack of any alternative leadership being thrown up either by the opposition or from within the GJM ranks will prompt the GJM to regain the lost space. This trajectory might result in violence due to resistance by the police, people and the opposition parties.

The other option is that the confusion and the dissociation in the GJM ranks, over the allegations of the brutal slaying of the AIGL President, sinks the party. In such a situation, the Gorkhaland movement would need time to re-group and build momentum. The United Front of opposition parties can take leadership to capture the momentum and take it forward. But these are all estimations which might fall short owing to the sheer complexity and unpredictability associated with human affairs and the number of actors involved in the conflict. However, there are a number of lessons to be learnt from the developments and dynamics of the past three years of the GJM led movement.

The vital issue over which the tensions in the hills were raising is over the leadership of the movement. When the talks continue, who will be at the table? This is a key issue and has determined the trajectory of GJM’s politics in the past three years, with their exile of Ghising and then the efforts at brow-beating AIGL. In simple terms, the GJM is unwilling to share the leadership of a movement they had captured with their imagination and fortitude. But what is also true is that the GJM’s claims to represent the people of Darjeeling is a trifle doubtful having never participated in the electoral process. If there was one party which could claim such legitimacy it is the Gorkha National Liberation Front (GNLF), which will of course not be acceptable to most of the people of Darjeeling. In such a situation, it makes sense to have an all party group participate in the talks, which was exactly the point being made by Madan Tamang repeatedly.

The heart of the matter for those grieved by the turn of events for the fate of Gorkhaland should not be the lost time or momentum. The crux of the matter should be about the inability of the leaders to come together and form a united front for achieving the goal of statehood and to achieve the objectives without giving into the politics of violence. It has been observed all over the world, that movements which are violent, intolerant of dissent and undemocratic, practice the same politics after their aims have been achieved. The struggle mode of dictatorial politics is explained away by the non-negotiable nature of their aims of ‘independence’, ‘identity’ or statehood in this case. But it is difficult to imagine a social group or organization to turn a new leaf after they have achieved their objectives and they continue to not let go of power. These are the reasons why methods of struggle become vital as they create a culture which becomes institutionalized.

The legitimacy of a movement is also judged on their means and methods of struggle. In both instances 1986-1988 and the current phase, the Gorkhaland movement falls short in terms of democratic modes of struggle and the GNLF was accused of intolerant politics and we see the same with the GJM. While the GJM led movement carried out their struggle via ‘Gandhian’ methods, there were enough bursts of violence against the dissenting, social ostracization (of GNLF members) and consistent use of threats. The diktats on traditional attire, the harassment and browbeating of the Naari and the Vidyarthi Morcha, the school students on hunger strikes were a few examples where the GJM was treading the fine line between people’s support which was voluntary or support gained by the fear of reprisals. The illegal alcohol ban also falls into the same category of controversial methods. It is tempting to compare, rhetorically, these methods which are meant to invoke the spirit of Mahatma Gandhi’s Civil Disobedience Movement but they fall flat owing to their vigilante imposition. There might have been a delicate balance on some issues where the party could claim a certain level of people’s consent but the case of the Gorkhaland Personal (GLP) was an outright case of holding out the threat of violence to those who disagreed or did not toe the GJM line. The GLP is illegal and threatening despite the GJM claims of innocence.

It was the success of the GJM owing to people’s support which turned the party into their arrogant posturing. It was the people’s tolerance and connivance at the earlier instances of coercion which brought the matter to such an impasse. As has been mentioned before, journalists and intellectuals ceased to be non-partisan participants and became sloganeers for the GJM. This is where Shri Madan Tamang became very important through the course of the struggle, as the sane voice, fighting for democratic space, speaking for his right to disagree despite GJM efforts to hound and scare him away from the hills as was done to the GNLF leadership.

In the headiness of the movement, a number of issues started fading as people became short sighted and the logic suggests that such sacrifices are necessary to achieve their aims. One need not be a puritan for non-violent methods to sense the coercive undertones of the supposed ‘Gandhian’ demeanor. There are other greater sacrifices that a movement aims to achieve in its struggle rather than the ones forsaken by civil society in the hills. One is reminded of Gandhi’s tolerance of his critics, Ambedkar, Jinnah without resorting to the sort of tactics the GJM indulged in and Gandhi also called off the Non-cooperation movement after the violence at Chauri Chaura. However, to expect such bravado from the leaders our societies throws up in these times, maybe a trifle too high a moral. In order to take lessons from the recent events, it is of foremost importance that no group, organization seeks to banish and exile the GJM leadership. It is a matter of the law and order agencies to pursue that agenda, which of course, is not the most reliable option. However, it goes without saying that we cannot have our cake and eat it too. To expect the rule of law to function, we need to respect the rule of law and amidst the events in the past three years during the GJM led agitation, none of us even bothered to raise question regarding the rule of law. Shri Madan Tamang was a victim of such an anarchic context.

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Peace and Conflict Studies at Sikkim University

A small essay written for the purpose to disseminate the idea of Peace and Conflict Studies and generate awareness of the discipline. It was published in Sikkim Now, a english daily published from Gangtok, Sikkim on 25th March 2010. The essay is also available at Beacon Online. Please click on it to enlarge it.

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Bandhs: Evaluating Modes of Protest

It has been a fortnight since the indefinite strike was called by the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) in the Darjeeling hills. When the strike began, the only national daily (if one can call The Telegraph, Siliguri edition, a national daily), one subscribes to, carried a number of stories on the difficult choice of boarding schools in the hill sub divisions of West Bengal. The schools are part of the Darjeeling brand, the first t of the three t’s, with tea and tourism that is the bed rock of the charm of the Bengal hills and its tradition. Some of the schools are more than a century old and attracts students from different parts of India and once again from abroad. The timing of the strike was unfortunate as most of the schools had recently re-opened after their summer break. It is a difficult choice in the best of circumstances but when a deadline is staring you in the face, it is an impossible logistical task to send the boarders home, in a matter of days, never mind, the rush that overwhelms the Indian Railways summer.

The events transported me, almost a quarter of a century back, to my own days in a boarding school in Darjeeling. My first years in Darjeeling coincided with the, peaking of the Gorkha National Liberation Front’s (GNLF) push for statehood in the years 1986-1988.

In the current round of the agitation for Gorkhaland and being located in Sikkim, I have perhaps been only marginally affected by the bandh. But I had an eerie feeling of having gone through it before, a ‘been there and done that’ feeling, what in French is termed déjà vu. The dictionary describes déjà vu, as an experience (real or imagined) of feeling sure that one has witnessed or experienced a new situation previously.

In the year 1986, not taking into consideration the flash strikes, we had two major strikes, for six days and thirteen days, respectively. These two bandhs occurred in June and September if memory serves me accurately. In 1987, the major strike was a closure of the hills for thirteen days around June or July. The litany of strikes were to continue, a regular feature of life, but in that period, the biggest, the mother of all strikes, was the fourty day strike in March, 1988 which was the beginning of the end of the movement with the establishment of the Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council (DGHC).

After school, I came back to the region only twice in the next 15 years and both times, one had to re-work thought out schedules to escape the noose of the bandh. The first was in August 2003, when a bandh in Siliguri, intervened leading to a change in our plans. In April 2008, I was in Darjeeling and yet again, due to a bandh in Siliguri, we had to hasten our departure to get to Bagdogra before Mamta didi’s goons’ took over the highway, narrowly making it to the airport on a thela.

It is a documented fact that the state of West Bengal experiences the maximum number of shut downs (average of 40-50 per year!), Assam is another state which has a high incidence of bandhs. In an almost cultural manner, uniform across the length and breadth of this vast and diverse country, political, social or religious organizations, call a strike. It is also accepted by all and sundry that bandhs are enforced with the threat of violence by party cadres, causing hardship, suffering and disrupting normal life and throwing normal life out of gear.

The bandh can be a relief to some, as it liberates them from their dull, dreary jobs and children from school. For the others who have travel plans, or an examination, an assignment to complete, it is a spanner in the works. However, when bandhs become regular, as it is in this ‘strategically’ important region of India, it becomes a nuisance, it restricts economic development, it discourages investors, it keeps away visitors and it gradually leads to a cutting off, of economic ties and integration to the national economy, pushing the region into a ‘periphery’.

This leads us to the question of the methods of protest. How should one protest? And what methods will generate the expectant, public and official, response to bring about the change in policy? We also have to consider, the question of violence and its efficacy in bringing about desired change. As, The New York Times correspondent for South Asia, wrote in an aptly titled dispatch, “Want to be heard in India? You'd better form a militia”, suggesting that, “[violence has]…started to replace hunger strikes, sit-ins and marches as the basic tools of Indian political life: guiltlessly deployed, fatally effective. Forget what you've heard about Gandhi and nonviolence in India. This is a nation of militias now.”

Ominous in any circumstances, the struggle for self determination and identity, the lack of development or the inequality of it, has generated remarkable discontent across the nation. The Kashmir, Assam, Manipur and Maoists issues have been endemic for a few decades and are noticed by the powers, only when the violence crosses a threshold level. In these circumstances, how is to one go about evaluating the bane of strikes? Are we to be gratified at the lack of violence?

Bandh's were declared illegal by a Supreme Court Judgement in November, 1997. However, it remains a common and an effective means of expression for the aggrieved and their right to the freedom of expression, the right to organise and protest. On the other side and to paraphrase the words of the then Chief Justice of India, Bandhs put others to inconvenience, depriving them of the freedom of movement, expression and go against the very right to life, denying people access to health care and hospitals. Political bandhs are expected to paralyze the life of the people and that is un-constitutional.

Should a bandh be illegal only if there is an act of violence and the life of the common people are affected? What are our choices? Are legal and constitutional methods of protests like peaceful processions, Public Interest Litigation, mass media campaign, fasting and political platforms like the Legislative assembly and Parliament not enough to be heard in India?

The piece was published on 28th July in Sikkim NOW, a daily published from Gangtok.

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Neighbourhood Watch: Testing Times Ahead in Nepal

Nepal has been in a state of perpetual crisis for most of the past two decades, beginning with the pro-democracy movement in the late 1980’s, the unstable and corrupt democratic governments, the start of the Maoists insurgency, palace massacre, the royal coup and the triangular struggle between the Maoists, the Monarchy and the political parties. It was only in 2006 that hope returned with the settlement between the Maoists and the political parties to corner the berserk monarchy that brought Nepal back from the brink of collapse. There was optimism, the monarchy blinked under sustained pressure, a cease fire was in place and the Maoists had been brought into the democratic process after the parties put aside their differences to work together.

Since then, the experience has been topsy-turvey of unending jockeying, pushing and then withdrawal of the varying interests being represented and negotiated since the formation of the Constituent Assembly. The present state of affairs can be interpreted in different ways, it is perhaps the result of the prevailing distrust and the clash of political cultures, the authoritarian Maoist one and the resistance of the mainstream parties to the Maoists efforts to have their way or it is about a recalcitrant general testing civilian supremacy in a fractured polity.

It all began with the National Games in April as the narrative goes. The Nepalese Army (NA) refused to play ball with former Maoist rebels also participating in the games. The received wisdom that sports is war by other means proved to be right in the case but in an inadvertent manner as the NA refused to engage with their former rivals and walked out of the National Games.

But the incident was merely another round in the running battle between the Maoists government trying to assert its will over the NA. One of the institutions among the few along with the judiciary that has not been brow beaten by the Maoists deluge that is sweeping all aspects of Nepalese society. The Maoist government accuses the NA of disobeying it over several issues and couches its argument in the supremacy of the civilian over the military. In March, the army chief's recommendation to give three-year extensions to eight retiring officers of Brigadier's rank did not go down well with the Maoist government. Prior to this, the NA, refused to toe the government’s order to not go ahead with the recruitment to fill vacancies in the NA.

The Army Chief’s, Gen Rookmangud Katawal, personality clashes with the Defence Minister, a Maoist, who is hardly seen at army programmes, fresh recruitments to the army, the National Games walk out and the dogged opposition to the induction of the Maoists’ guerrilla combatants into the NA have brought things to the brink in Nepal.

The rehabilitation of about 20,000 former People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fighters in the U.N.-monitored camps is a major issue of contention between the Maoists and the military, with senior officers led by the Army Chief, resisting the integration of the indoctrinated Maoist fighters into the army. The PLA fighters have had their weapons locked away under the 2006 peace deal. The UN’s tenure will expire in July 2009 and any delay in the management could threaten the tenuous peace.

The 2006 peace deal also stipulates that both the NA and the PLA will not add to their ranks and any recruitment would be a violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The Army’s enrollment drive was taken up by the Supreme Court which upheld it but asked the authorities to not make any further appointments till the final judgment. The Army officials have said that they did not violate the peace accord as it was just filling up the vacant positions. The Defence Minister and Maoist Army's commanders have strongly opposed the NA's move to recruit new soldiers and the Maoists PLA has even started to recruit new PLA personnel to counter the NA move.

In light of these developments and the walk out of the National Games, the Maoist government demanded a clarification from the Army Chief. Katawal submitted an explanatory note promptly, but it was found unsatisfactory by the Maoists who are decided on dismissing him. The General's contention is that he could be dismissed only by the President of the Republic, who is of the opinion that the government should take action against Katawal after reaching an understanding with other parties. The move to remove the army chief does not have the backing of most of the parties and even the CPN (UML), Maoists ally, is divided on the issue. Thus, while the parties agree that the army should heed the elected government's orders, they do not support the move to fire the army chief and there is an effort to forge consensus on the issue.

The Maoists have the most seats in the Constituent Assembly. In some views, the major parties like the Nepali Congress (NC), the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) or CPN (UML), and the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) are standing up to the Maoists efforts to steam roll their agenda on Nepal. The coalition government was possible with parties compromising to cross the impasse in the larger national benefit. After ceasefire, the Maoists have committed themselves to multiparty democracy and democratic elections. The task of the coalition is to draft a new Constitution taking into account the multi-ethnic character of Nepal.

The Maoist government sought to sack Katawal in early April but failed after opposition by its main ally, the opposition parties and even major foreign donors, including India, the US and UK. Maoist sources assert that the ruling party is still bent on removing Katawal and was waiting for main ally UML to reach a decision. The UML’s Standing Committee decision has refused to support the Maoist move to replace General Katwal by Lt. General Khadka. The CPN-UML suggested a “middle-path” approach to resolve the crisis that proposed to remove Katawal and the second-in-command, Lt. General Kul Bahadur Khadka and settle for a third person to lead the Army, besides getting rid of Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa. In effect, the two factions have their backs to the wall and any outcome will result in a loss of face for one or the other. It appears that with the lack of UML support, the Maoists are isolated. UML’s middle path compromise formula has been rejected by all parties including the Maoists. While the Maoists say they are determined to take action against Katawal, they are trying to reach a consensus among political parties. But what is certain is that any action along the lines is likely to further sour relations between the army and the former guerrillas.

Katawal’s term ends in August, the urgency to sack him stems from the Maoist desire to appoint as his successor, the second senior-most general, Lt-Gen Kul Bahadur Khadka. While Katawal staunchly opposed the Maoist bid to induct its over 19,000 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fighters into the Nepal Army (NA), saying they would have to meet international recruitment criteria, Khadka is assumed to be more flexible but there is a catch, that Khadka needs to be promoted soon or he will retire next month.

The Foreign Hand

The biggest pressure not to remove Katawal before his tenure comes from Delhi. After the abolition of the monarchy, an institution Indian wanted retained, even if merely titular, the NA harks back to the traditional linkages with India and the Indian Army. Acrimony between the two armed groups that represent powerful but divisive tendencies would make the Indian neighborhood a lot worse than it already is, with three of its neighbors at civil war. The proximity of Nepal to the Hindi heartland, linkages between the Maoists and the steadily increasing Chinese influence under a Maoist Nepal has had the Babus in South Block anxious. The Indian ambassador to Nepal, Rakesh Sood met Nepalese Prime Minister Prachanda to express concern. India has been tight lipped about the whole issue and explains away the flurry of meetings, third in a week since the dismissal order, as discussions over issues of mutual interest. The strategic community in New Delhi is alarmed at the Maoist bid to turn the army into a Maoists stronghold and ignoring the fallout on the fragile peace process. The Indian envoy, though, was not alone in his mission and was part of an ambassadorial collective, representing the major donor nations among which the United States and United Kingdom are mentionable, indicating the concern at the breakout of new hostilities.

The fear is that the Maoists are trying to push the dismissal of the Army Chief in their efforts to control the army, the one institution which would in the event of a future civil war or turn towards a dictatorship, stand up to the PLA cadres. Though, the Maoists, call such allegations propaganda and express their commitment to multi-party democracy. Amidst all this, there has not been any effort to figure out the fate of the 20,000 odd PLA fighters and their absorption into society. The lessons from around the world of disarmed groups becoming a law onto themselves are not encouraging. It appears the only option remains their absorption in either the police or the military services but this also means the Maoists getting effective control of the institution, the proverbial dilemma between the devil and the deep blue sea.

The impasse has reached such proportions that Prachanda has had to postpone his eight day visit to China beginning in May where he was due to discussing fresh assistance and investment and negotiated a new peace and friendship treaty that Beijing is keen to sign with Kathmandu.

Despite the lasting military ceasefire, the current imbroglio severely challenges Nepal’s peace process by threatening the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and also opens the possibility of the two armies inching towards armed confrontation and inordinately delaying the drafting of the new constitution.

The piece was published on 3rd May in Sikkim NOW, a daily published from Gangtok.

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India, Governance, the Railway Budgets and the coming future

The railway budget by Mamta Banerjee was surprising only in its details. We have known in India from the past that Railway Ministers (RM) reward their constituencies(in the case of the railways, it is their respective states). The earlier RM's Laloo Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Ram Bilas Paswan have done it within my political memory. So it was known that Mamta would provide the goods to Bengal in keeping with trend and this is what has happened in the Railway Budget for 2009.

My home state, Bihar, has been the beneficiary of the earlier RM's (from Bihar) munificence when I was living in Delhi. The rail connectivity to Patna from Delhi was one of the sectors which drastically transformed. The choices in numbers of trains, speed, as well as the services in trains improved considerably. However, since I have left Delhi and moved to the North East, I see the criminal neglect, AC coaches crawling with cockroaches, dirty, the negligent attendant, even in the premium class Rajdhani trains. After nine months in this part of India and many train journeys, it has led one to conclude that this is the norm. If you take the North East Express from NewJalpaiGuri (NJP) to Patna, in the non-AC sleeper coaches, which apart from being filthy are full of military men travelling home for holidays, the passage is lined with steel trunks and movement is a hazard. The journey from NJP to Guwahati in sleeper coaches is equally bad, with a large number of people who do not possess reserved tickets. In the last journey, I can safely assert that those without reservations out numbered us.

The litany of railway complaints is never ending, we all have our share of anecdotes, but the larger point I wish to make, is that in the challenges that India faces in the next couple of years, it would be difficult to improve or maintain the system in this political culture where essential services play the spoils of election victory. Important to note that financial health of the Indian Railways has not even been considered in this analysis, reflective of how the RM's think. There is financial logic, there is social logic and then there is political logic, the Indian system appears to be working only with the political. The current state of affairs will not improve the lives of the majority of Indians and nor will it help in keeping our state owned services in a healthy condition. Not being a blind liberaliser, especially of essential services, nor am I, a dogmatic 'privatisation is hell' believer but yet I am appalled at the details of how this country is run. In order to keep the essential services running without breakdowns, India needs to respect financial and social logic. The political has to take a back seat.

The RM's appointed by the government in New Delhi, are ministers for the entire country and not for any select province. We already have political leaders representing communities, tribes and caste. Are we never going to get the notional 'Indian' in the ministry? China's technocratic governance is a model worth examining. We, in India, should be looking to learn from China then perhaps, we can imagine competing.

The example of Air India and its request to the government for a bail out package, is a good example about the short sightedness of the way government services are abused in the country. If we imagine the railways in the same situation, imagine the crisis, it would result in drastic measures and lending agencies will demand their pound of flesh, they will run it in the basis of financial logic. In short sighted political greed, the political class has lost the larger picture. If after 20 years, Mamta Baneerjee were to become the Railway Minister again and the current trend continues, while importance of the railways will continue, the government may just not find the money to make social decisions, never mind political ones.

One would like to state something, one has been thinking over for sometime now, that central government ministries (to begin with) should be handled by experts. The Railway Ministry should be run by someone from the Railways, the Human Resource and Development Ministry by an educator. And these should not be political appointments rather they should be selected on the basis of merit and their appointment approved by the Parliament. It goes against the grain of the Indian system of representation but these experts could be collectively responsible to the Prime Minister and the Parliament. The Prime Minister can be appointment as it exists but his team of ministers should be 1. experts 2. non-partisan.

Extra-ordinary times need extra-ordinary measures, the challenges that India faces due to its population are not and cannot be handled effectively by generalist bureaucrats or politicians, who merely win elections on the basis of their community support (a norm). The coming challenges need professionals. I will digress to illustrate the point I have in mind. I am at a new university, established in 2007. We are as basic as it comes, with infrastructure even smaller than a primary school at this stage. I have been here for the past nine months. It has been a learning experience at governance and how things work and the importance of individuals towards putting in place, systems which will outlive many a human lives. Any system being instituted or managed is reduced or elevated to the understanding, vision of the individual who mans it. There are systemic checks and balances but the individual space is enough to cripple a system or raise its level, in the discharge of its services. It is at this point where corruption finds its way into the system. Individuals are important and in the sheer rush of numbers, this country and its systems have forgotten the individual, having been reduced, by and to the lowest common denominator due to the numbers. It is going to be an individual's personal world view which will stamp it self on the country and its institutions. It is not merely about setting up structures, once set up, the individual (not the community, tribe, province, caste) is the key to interpret the space. The point is being well documented in how the various processes at my young university are shaping. A lot of it is in good hands but some of it leave much to be desired. But it does provide a convincing argument with regard to the importance of individuals.

The political class in the past few years have offered very few individuals who were above their sectarian or provincial parochialisms. But from the specialists, one can name, numerous individuals, who have excelled and instituted world class organisations while on government appointment. It is time, India turned to these men owing to their proven track record. And unfortunately for the votaries of corporate India, I do not have businessmen in mind. I have in mind people like MS Swaminathan, Verghese Kurian of Operation Flood (Amul), APJ Abdul Kalam for the service in Indian Space Research Organisation(ISRO), E. Sreedharan of Konkan Railway and now Delhi Metro, and many others of who I am not aware. The government sector individuals are used to illustrate the point as they worked within the 'social' world of the country with governmental briefs (a limiting system), at government salaries and yet managed to change their sectors. It is not to suggest that this is a fool proof system and will be perfect but it will definitely bring to better skills, decisions and a more enlightened governance for the nation.

In a similar manner, the various provinces in India could switch over to such a system with the Chief Minister as a political appointment and the team of experts as ministers responsible to the state assembly. It would be akin to the American system where individuals with detailed proposals in their respective areas are able to make it to the government. There remain problems with regard to the basic democratic system envisaged by the constitution but if we start with such an idea, we can improvise and tailor it to achieve the necessary ends, which is to provide good and durable services to all citizens of the country.

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Trees, King Makers, Sikkim and Elections in India

It is election time in India and since am located in Sikkim, I am following the local election scenario. It entails following the local press and understanding the Sikkimese scene, issues and community configuration. The general sort of advice to anyone trying to make sense of elections in India is that they should look to understand the ethnic issues community, clan, caste, tribe, religion, language or race and you will have the larger picture of the contest, like the frame of a painting. In most parts of India, it is one of these factors or a combination of them which determine the ruling coalition. Issues play a certain role but by themselves alone, issues even if developmental, will not win you seats, if you are brazen or modern enough to claim ignorance of the identity of your constituents or if you consider it not relevant. Cynical but this is my understanding of Indian politics and I think of it as the norm. We do have exceptions to this generalization. Biharis would point out that George Fernandes, an outsider and a Christian always won his elections from Muzaffarpur. People from other parts of the country would mention the exceptions (and there are quite a few) from their region. However, the norm remains extremely primordial in the fact that identities decide the winner.

The Department also organized a talk on the issues and players in the Sikkim Elections by a prominent journalist from Gangtok, Joseph Lepcha. Joseph's talk was bare and focussed, on the election arithmetic with percentage of votes and seats. He also briefly looked at the issues in the past, for instance, the de-merger demand of the Sikkim Sangram Parishad (SSP) led by Nar Bahadur Bhandari (now in Congress),the effect of the Mandal Commission report and the Income Tax issues. Personally, for me the talk was so good, with the numbers at the finger tips and the easy flagging of important issues that I was tempted to churn out a piece for some journal on the Sikkim election scene. But I resisted the immoral, self fish call. Since I am on this confessional mode, I ought to admit, that most of the information I have is due to the kind indulgence of two friends, one of who is the editor of the largest selling newspaper in Sikkim, and the other, a bureau chief for a Hindi Daily.

The ruling party is a regional outfit called the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). The SDF has been in government for three terms and the last 14 years and in my opinion, it appears likely that they will continue for the next five. But that is not the interesting part of the story, the more exciting part is the Congress Manifesto, but some background first. The Congress is led by a man called Nar Bahadur Bhandari (mentioned earlier), who was the Chief Minister of Sikkim for 14 years before SDF under Pawan Chamling formed the government. When in Darjeeling as a kid, I used to hear suspicious stuff about Bhandari, I do not recollect the details, but the things were not cheerful, it had that smell of bullying. I have faint recollections that the stories were disturbing. Bhandari is/was in the mould of the regional leaders of the Door Darshan-days, leaders who were brazen about power and used it like imagined Hindi film villains. Bhandari has been out of the government structure for a long time.

Sikkim is an organic state and grazing, felling of trees in forest areas are not permitted. The Sikkim State Congress's manifesto actually promises that fertilizers and pesticides will be distributed for free if the Congress is brought to power, it also promises free grazing everywhere and the felling of trees as also the development of saw mills to process the cut trees. I was shocked when I read this, after all this is the age of climate change, saving forests is of prime importance and global warming has also had its effect on Sikkim. On inquiring about the irrational promises, I was told that Bhandari's sole poll agenda is anti-Chamling and so he opposes everything the SDF government has followed and his explanation to the public is that new forests are generated every few years, so there are no problems in cutting them down! There is truth though in the matter that such steps taken by the SDF government did affect interests of the agricultural population but it seems oddly disturbing to actually turn the clock back on such a progressive state of affairs. But in many respects, such morbidity defines Bhandari, similar to perhaps, Mulayam Singh Yadav protesting in favour of students rights to use unfair means during examinations.

Rahul Gandhi was here in Gangtok lending support to Bhandari's campaign. He spoke for about eight minutes and in my view his description of the attributes of the 'North East' people were rather patronizing. Interestingly, Rahul also claimed that he was in Sikkim 18 years ago in the Sonam Gyatso Mountaineering Institute (SGMI) for over a month, for I think a rock/mountain climbing course. I was with Sikkim journalists who were just returning to the office after the public meeting at Paljor Stadium and with Varun Gandhi's (fake degrees from SOAS And LSE) in mind, I asked them to follow up, Gandhi's tryst with SGMI and check if his claims were legitimate.

I will perhaps follow this little introduction of Sikkim politics with another write up some time later about the community issues and the social engineering that keeps the SDF in power. It would suffice to say that, the Newar, Bahun and Chettri (NBC and Non Backward Castes) are the traditional support group behind Bhandari and the Congress while the Nepalese OBC castes are with Chamling and the SDF. In the SDF's kitty and essentially due to its conduct over the past 15 years is the confidence of the Bhutia-Lepcha (BL) group. As to how these and the other factors like money, individuals and the random factors work remains to be seen. I do hope I can do this before the election results in Sikkim are out and I am proven wrong, pre-election analysis, even if wrong, is an indulgence we all need.

But since, I am doing it, I will take it a little further and make some predictions. My hunch on the numbers is that out of the 32 assembly seats, at best, only 3-5 will fall in the Congress kitty, the rest would remain with SDF. I am marking out those seats for the Congress despite the fact that in the last Assembly SDF had the following numbers 31/32. Such numbers was due to the fact that a number of Congress candidates nomination papers were rejected in the 2004 elections. The other important issue to mention is that the SDF with its ticket distribution has effectively managed to blunt the anti-incumbency factor it could be facing. It did not give tickets to 21 of its sitting MLA's out of which 10 were ministers. Earth shaking for any party, anywhere in India but so far we see little or no discontent. This is undoubtedly due to Chamling's dominating leadership and the fact that he remains focussed on governance and the distribution of state benefits to a significantly larger section of the Sikkim population. It should also tell us something about Chamling's reputation and chances in the near future of Sikkim. And since the politician class is a wily lot and is prone to throwing its weight in whichever direction the wind blows, we can safely assume that, the wind is going to blow in the direction of the SDF. At the best of times, people during elections change parties in their search for tickets so my conjecture is that despite dropping 20 MLA's, if none have gone in search for another ticket, the results of the Sikkim elections, just requires intelligent guess work.

Staying with elections, psephologists, analysts and the insufferable TV herd is at it again, making predictions about who will form the next government in Delhi. I think everyone is certain that the Parliament is again heading towards a scenario in which no party will get enough seats to form the government on its own. The situation is even more lucrative for the TV clique, they can churn out millions of 30 second length stories, contradicting each other, about the 'king makers', who as the press continues in the same vein, wish to be Kings!

Mayawati is the flavor of the season. The adulation of Mayawati is centred on the imminence of her political party, the Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP) gaining in the North Indian belt at the expense of Pehalwan Mulayam's Samjwadi Party (SP) and the BJP. Thereby, holding the 'key' to who forms the next government at Delhi. Mukul Kesavan, in, Virago in Diamonds- Who’s afraid of Kumari Mayavati?, writes succinctly about the social attitudes to Mayawati. The Foreign Press also appears to be having a field day with Mayawati, Newsweek calls her India's Anti-Obama and WSJ titles its piece, Whose is afraid of Kumari Mayawati? (I am also wondering about the similar title in the Kesavan piece and the WSJ).

So the scenario is that we might have leaders of the regional parties, with only blinkered domestic agendas and no external experience or outlook, who are to perhaps come to power. Malvika Singh in her column Mala Fide, The Telegraph, 21st April 2009, suggests that the media, Should put them to Test Now, "Maybe the time is right for the anchor-persons to invite Mayavati and ask her how she would handle the havoc in Pakistan, how she plans to deal with the Taliban in the border, how she would work on the next phase of the nuclear deal with Barack Obama. India needs to know what its aspiring leaders are all about. Invite Mulayam Singh, Jayalalithaa, Nitish Kumar et al, get them out of their regional and local issues since they are desperately aspiring for the Dilli gaddi, and let us all hear their expositions on other — national and international — issues that plague the world — from global warming to terror. Parochial mindsets, limited passions, and predictable attitudes do not make national leaders. We have seen the rabblerousing skills on podiums, heard the hysterical rhetoric and hollow promises of a better life from all those who have been out of power. We must now hear them articulate their policy positions, then make our choice."

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The Mutiny in Bangladesh: An early post-mortem

The mutiny of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR), the paramilitary force manning Bangladeshi borders just got more interesting as one scans the assortment of news items from various sources that google links. On February 25th, the soldiers of BDR at the headquarters in Dhaka, killed and wounded officers in a mutiny said to be over pay, work conditions and career advancement. The news trickling in on the first day was sketchy at best with the number of deaths begining at a meagre number and steadily climbing over the next three days, duration of the mutiny and beyond. The events played out thus- the mutiny, the killings, the hurried general amnesty by the Bangladesh Government to handle the crisis, then the withdrawal of the amnesty and the escape of the mutiniers and then the discovery of graves in and around the BDR complex, seemed like one of the many plots from the writings of Mario Vargos Llosa documenting the innumerable coups in the Central and South Americas.

But for us leading more simplistic lives in South Asia, it was a case of simmering anger finding the lost path to expression. The soldier's mutiny over pay and working conditions is not a regular occurance but it was understandable. The other important aspect of the event was that the officers manning the BDR are drawn from the ranks of the regular Bangladeshi Army and they discriminate against the BDR soldiers. So the story goes and since the end of the mutiny, the discovery of graves and more bodies of officers killed and which were badly mutilated are prompting a closer look at the events. Till then it seemed like an institutional problem limited to perhaps to demands of better pay and the discontent in BDR against the army, a regular developing world phenomena.

The story was fascinating for another reason which was the use of the word, mutiny, to describe the events. As mentioned, mutiny's are unheard of in South Asia due to the legacy and tradition inculcated by the British Indian Army, from which the Indian and the Pakistani army was carved out. The event and its reporting also prompted me to think of the Sepoy Mutiny of 1857 when a section of the Indian soldiers led by Mangal Pandey turned on their officers. This event has been dubbed as the First War of Independence by the Nationalist historians but it goes by the name of the Sepoy Mutiny in popular parlance. I thought of it in that manner due to this headline carried by The Telegraph, 26th February 2009 where they called it the Sepoy Mutiny in Dhaka.

So there it was, a rather momentous event but simple in its logic and ramifications, of a group of soldiers turning on their discriminatory officers with work conditions grievances. But then a few stories from the Indian media which I happened to come across made it appear deeper and richer than it seemed. The Times of India titled their story, Bangladesh mutineers name tycoon with Pak links, 1st March 2009, which suggested that the mutineers were backed by a Shipping tycoon with links to the Pakistani Military-Intelligence complex and the opposition Bangaldesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The current government is headed by Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League elected a month ago after a two year emergency military rule. The new reports surfaced as the committee headed by Bangladesh Home Minister started a probe into the gruesome revolt by Bangladesh Rifles. There is so far no indication that this was a intended coup. Bangladesh has witnessed many successful and failed coup attempts. Sheikh Hasina's husband was Mujibur Rehman, the man, who with the help of India achieved independence from Pakistan in 1971 and who was killed in a military coup in 1975. Sheikh Hasina is seen as close to India.

The Indian Express, meanwhile, reports, Dhaka rebels reveal plot to provoke Army, topple Govt, 1st March 2009, that mutiny was intended to 'provoke a strong Army reaction. Any such response from the Bangladesh Army would have had serious consequences. The interrogation is said to have revealed that separate plots had been hatched to assassinate Bangladesh Army Chief Gen Moeen U Khan. Already, similar plots against Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina have been uncovered in the past few weeks.

The Bangladesh Army has cooperated with the Hasina Government and has so far shown restraint despite seething anger among its officers and troops. The Bangladesh Army is now baying for blood and wants to avenge the massacre of its officers — most of whom are sons of army officers and civilian bureaucrats. Gen. Khan too has been able to demonstrate control over his forces despite fissures and camps in his Army. Former Bangladesh PM and BNP leader Khaleda Zia too have supported the inquiry launched by the government but has criticized it for wasting time in negotiations. But the political fallout of the inquiry is likely to be murkier.

The Times of India report goes on to add more of the usual ISI-Islamist connections, real or imagined, to the story when it addes that, 'Sources are also pointing to the scale of the brutality of the murders, the mutilations, etc, which they say are tell-tale signs of the Islamist ideologies that have infiltrated the lower cadres of the BDR, thanks to their extensive Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) connections. Behind the mutiny is the war crimes tribunal that Sheikh Hasina promised to set up for the trial of Pakistani collaborators or razakars from the independence war. This had created trouble inside Bangladesh and Pakistan as well. In fact, Pakistan president Asif Ali Zardari sent an emissary to Sheikh Hasina, Pervez Ispahani, to persuade her to put off this trial as it could embarrass the Pak army considerably.'

One does not mean to be sceptical of the reporting, a lot of what one has quoted is the reality in Bangaldesh, the cleavge between its Bengali linguistic identity exhibited by its warmer ties with India, the 1971 war for independence and its religious identity going back to the partition of India and the creation of Pakistan. These two tendencies are represented by the two parties, Awami League and the BNP, with the army more with the BNP in this specturm. The party of Khaleda, widow of former army chief General Zia-ur Rehman, has in its ranks a large number of former army officers as leaders.

The fact that Bill Clinton in his South Asia visit in March 2000 visited Bangladesh as it was a 'moderate' Islamic country is a bygone era, the growth and spread of fundamentalism has been an ongoing process and the last government headed by the BNP was in coalition with the Jamat-e-Islami. The mutiny and the conspiracy suggestion can perhaps be seen as a fall out of the 1971 war crime tribunal Sheikh Hasina's government intends to establish and this would implicate sections in Bangaladesh and Pakistan, therefore the need to scuttle the move. The Islamists in the 1971 war were on the Pakistani side of the proverbial fence. The Pakistan government after the independence of Bangladesh appointed a commission under the chairmanship of Hamoodur Rahman to probe the role of the Pakistan army. Hamoodur Rahman commission report revealed many aspects of politics in Pakistan army during the Civil War of 1971. Because of the nature of the findings it was not declassified for decades until an Indian newspaper published the details.

Further, see this story complicates matters as it appears the large number of mutiners are headed towards India and are seeking refuge in India and have also written to their counter-parts in the Indian Border Security Force. The Bangladesh government has requested the Indian government to disarm and hand over the rebels and it is seen to have the tacit American blessings. However, India in the next few days or so will have a tight rope to walk as it does not want to be seen as partisan to any side which has been the bane of Indian policy towards Bangladesh since its inception. The Indian position appears to merely prevent the soldiers from crossing into India, if necessary by force but it will not be aparty to disarming the rebels. The only official reaction so far is here. The Prime Minister of Bangladesh is under pressure from the army ranks to act swiftly against the rebels, the first expression of which was the withdrawal of the amnesty granted to the rebels. The army leadership has expressed their subservience to civilian authorities, the next few days will decide how Sheikh Hasina handles the issue and how the army reaction will impact on the government.

This BBC report would be the latest on the developments in Bangladesh as I publish this post on 1 March 2009, 7.30 pm, local time.

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Am I reading this story right?

MNS workers disrupt the screening of Billu
Wednesday, February 18, 2009, 11:43 [IST]

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) launched a protest against screening of the movie Billu starring Shahrukh Khan. They objected that the lyrics of the song ‘Marjaani’ insult the works of Prophet Mohammed. Over 500 workers of the MSN protested outside a theatre at Kurla and demanded the deletion of item number starring Shahrukh Khan and Kareena Kapoor as it hurt the religious sentiments of the Muslims.



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Mirror Images

Compare these two news stories:


Basant, Valentine’s Day celebrations attacked

KARACHI: An enraged mob attacked merrymakers celebrating Basant and Valentine's Day at Defence Housing Authority's Nisar Shaheed Park on Saturday, private television channels reported. The park, which is located in a posh residential area of Karachi, was hosting Valentine's Day and Basant festivities when the attack occurred. The assault led to a commotion with residents rushing to vacate the area. The police have subsequently taken control of the situation. No injuries have yet been reported.

From the Dawn, February 14, 2009.

Sene men attack V-Day celebrators in Karnataka, injure two

Belgaum/Bangalore, Feb 14 (PTI) Sri Rama Sene activists today attacked workers of a BPO while they were celebrating Valentine day, injured two of them and ransacked the venue in Belgaum even as parts of Karnataka witnessed trouble-free celebrations. A 15-member group of sene activists, which was on the prowl to stall the celebrations in line with their threat to disrupt the event, spotted the banners put up at Katwa Infotech, a BPO, located in Jyoti Towers complex on the city outskirts. The intruders forced their way in, pulled down the banners and issued a warning to the gathering to disperse. Earlier in the day, a group of Sena activists took out a motorcycle rally in Belgaum city, visiting colleges and warning those celebrating the day.

From Press Trust of India, February 14, 2009.


It makes me wonder about the threats we discuss. NO

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Clouded By Confusion by Ravinder Kaur

The Times of India, 14th February 2009

A straight line can be drawn backwards from the Mangalore type of incidents to the Delhi murders of Nitish Katara and Jessica Lal. The canvas can be broadened to include the recent resurgence of honour crimes in northern India, instances of acid being thrown at women, and the backlash against women who dare to voice an opinion or choose a lifestyle of their choice. Young people are being punished for what is being perceived as immoral and detrimental to so-called Indian culture and tradition. Yet, physical assaults and assaults unto death cannot simply be comprehended as protests against what is objectionable to the sensibilities of some.

And it is the young who are victimising other young people, particularly women, drawing supportive responses from those responsible for law and order, whether it is a Ashok Gehlot supporting 'Indian culture' or a confused Sheila Dikshit asking women to stay indoors. The particularly virulent form the actions are taking and their vigilante nature propel us towards a more nuanced reading.

Emile Durkheim, the French sociologist, had a term and a theory to explain such (anti) social behaviour. Although his theory applied primarily to understanding suicide, it can, and has, been extended to other areas of human behaviour. Durkheim classified all periods of rapid change as leading to a state of 'anomie' or 'normlessness' in society. In such circumstances, individuals and groups are often in a 'state of confusion', uncertain of the appropriate norms to follow and uncertain of their place in society. Their response may be either in the form of extreme steps such as suicide, or violence against those perceived to be causing grievous harm to the moral foundations of society.

That India is undergoing a period of rapid transition is not in doubt; the anomie induced may be held responsible for many of the responses and incidents listed above. Indian society has had few social revolutions, such as students' revolts or strong feminist protests, or movements for greater individual freedoms, which could explain the changes we are experiencing. The transformation in Indian society has primarily been brought about by changes in the economy and technology. Yet, the social implications of far-reaching economic and technological change have been little studied or commented upon, apart from the railing we hear against globalisation and its presumed role in the destruction of 'traditional' culture and values.

For Indian women, globalisation has generally done good. It has brought them into the workforce, and done so in large numbers. Earlier, working women in India were either the elite or the poor. This picture has now changed with women of many classes choosing to work both before and after marriage. But there is a downside to this. Despite obvious class differences between women working in factories or call centres and in managerial jobs, tensions are perceptible and palpable in most families and in society at large.

Men (and in-laws) are happy that daughters, sisters and wives are bringing home incomes but are not fully reconciled to them venturing out of the house. Work and independent incomes enable women to try out new freedoms. On offer are choices and an escape from the stifling confines of parental or marital homes.

Society is uncertain about how to respond to these new demands, and the new mores espoused by the young. Which are the constituencies most affected by change? If the old are protecting so-called tradition and their own hegemony, what are the young involved in incidents such as those in Mangalore or the Nitish Katara and Jessica Lal murders protecting or fighting against? Here class combines with a more general gendered targeting young men desirous of economic and social upward mobility, who are looking from the outside at others who have already got where they secretly wish to be.

In such cases a genuine confusion over 'morals' combines with a destructive class envy, resulting in targeting of youth, especially women, who themselves are exploring the boundaries of their new freedoms. The targets are individuals who appear to have a glamorous lifestyle or putatively stand for a 'modernity' that has not yet embraced all. In all such cases, the freedoms sought to be curtailed are those of women, especially those seen as espousing a 'western modernity'. Additionally, the rise of the Hindutva parties gives a platform to these uncertain young men as defenders of 'traditional, Hindu culture,' providing them with respect from certain quarters.

That there is genuine confusion among our youth, especially among those associated with the socially conservative right, is often obvious in our classrooms. In an IIT classroom, peopled mostly with young men from small towns or cities, discussions of gender or homosexuality generally evoke embarrassed titters and reiterations of the importance of not losing 'Indian culture' to the juggernaut of globalisation.

Yet, at least some of those with politically conservative affiliations are assailed by self-doubt are they right in hating Muslims, in agreeing with excessive parental control or in looking at women wearing jeans and T-shirts as 'loose'? Conservative ideologies often become a protective shield against the flux of rapid change, especially if one nurses the feeling of being left out. It is here that a liberal arts education has a lot of work to do in our universities and educational institutes.

The writer is a professor of social anthropology, IIT Delhi.

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What's the fuss about Slumdog Millionaire? and other things...

I am at home as it's my semester break and there is not much do you can do in Patna. I watch TV, shoot sh*t and appear to be busy.

We shifted into the area we live in Patna in the year 1997, more than a decade ago. It was part of my father's retirement plans, to have his own house and in Patna, improving the Sinha lot from backwater Chapra.

So, the big news is that, since we shifted here in 1997, the roads are being laid for the first time. The entire lane appears upbeat and excited, we see more of our neighbors and they even talk to each other. Old men are protecting the road, till it dries and is strong, with great enthusiasm. It is important, for most who have been living here since 1988, this is the first time, the road has been built and they realize, that it will never be built for the second time in their life time.

The irony is that it is not even your usual road, with the tar and smooth and all, this is just a concrete construction of gravel, cement and sand. And trust me, we are all thrilled, suddenly, life feels and looks hopeful.

Life feels so different. After all the Pakistan, China, United States and Iraq war, sigh.

So I watch TV, and I notice this fuss about Slumdog Millionaire. Discussions, panel groups, audience voting etcetera. A few things, the fuss happened only after the movie picked up the Golden Globe Awards. Now, they are tying the Booker Winner, White Tiger and this together to make the point that the 'West' only fetes poverty. They then cite Satyajit Ray's Pather Panchali, as a case.

Nargis, the much respected Indian actress had also attacked Satyajit Ray in the Parliament of India (she was a nominated member) on this issue. Why?

The controversy started with the Big B's blog entry, where he makes the above point about how the 'west' only sees the poverty aspect of India.

This is ridiculous to say the least. If you look at the media coverage of the past half a decade, we have seen a lot of Bangalore, Hyderabad and Gurgaon. This argument of the 'west' seeing only poverty in India is not an issue. I mean aren't we all individuals? Adiga and Vikas Swarup (who wrote the book Q&A, which was adapted to Slumdog Millionaire), they are Indians.

Lastly, I like Sanjay Dutt and all, but his standing for elections, seems ridiculous to put it mildly.

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Will India heed the wake-up call? Mark Tully

Sir Mark Tully was the BBC's correspondent in India for many years. With the Indian intelligence community appearing to bear much of the blame for the attacks in Mumbai, he reflects here on intelligence failings and what to expect next.

The morning after the second day of what some are calling India's 9/11, the Indian Express front page carried the headline: "Our Nightmare, Our Wake-Up Call'.But will India wake up? If the past is anything to go by the answer has to be "no". India is like a great ocean liner that pitches and rolls precariously but never capsizes as it sails through tempests in which smaller and less stable craft would turn turtle.

Weaknesses

The storms that have rocked India include wars, riots, assassinations and, of course, terrorist attacks. The Indian liner also tends to right itself rapidly. I remember after Hindu extremists tore down a historic mosque in Ayodhya, being asked whether the harmony between the two main religious communities would be shattered and India would become like Lebanon or Northern Ireland.

I didn't think it would because, as I explained, tension tends to erupt rapidly in India but to subside with equal rapidity. The negative side of this is that Indians, once they are back in calm waters, tend to ignore the storm and so don't wake up to the problems which created it. The attacks in Mumbai have once again shown the weaknesses of the police and the intelligence services. On the first evening the police were at sixes and sevens. There appeared to be no order and no discipline.

Political interference

The head of the anti-terrorist squad, who should have been in the control room, went to the front line and was shot. Television crews were given freedom to show pictures of the police operations which could have provided valuable information to the terrorists. It's now also clear that there was a serious lack of co-ordination between the intelligence services and the security forces, including the police and the coast guards.

The prime minister has promised there will now be a new federal agency to fight terrorism. One of the main factors which has undermined the existing agencies has been political interference in their working. I once heard a retired head of the Central Bureau of Investigation, the federal detective agency, admit that political interference had made it an instrument of oppression in the hands of the government.Will the new agency be free of political interference? Here again I have my doubts. If I am to be proved wrong the ingrained habits of politicians will have to change.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/south_asia/7761502.stm

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Awesome!

From The Times of India, 18th November 2008.

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Want to be heard in India? You'd better form a militia By Anand Giridharadas

The International Herald Tribune,Thursday, October 23, 2008

MUMBAI: Not long ago, officials in this seaside megalopolis announced plans to retire taxicabs built before 1983.This was no radical idea: So withered are Mumbai's taxis that they must often shut the radio when they need the horsepower to climb a hill.

But one union leader here didn't like it. Last week he ordered the drivers of 55,000 taxis to strike. A few hundred drivers, needing money, defied him. Strikers smashed dozens of their taxis. Meanwhile, a fleet of newer, air-conditioned taxis, unconnected to the striking union, operated as usual, until mobs attacked its cabs, too. Thousands of officegoers in India's financial capital were stranded.

Five days later, they were stranded again — but for a different reason. A local ethnic-baiting politician was arrested for inciting violence against north Indian migrants. Followers of his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, or MNS, party flooded the streets hurling stones and bottles, and taxicabs were smashed once again, this time because many are driven by north Indians.

From Mumbai to Bengal to the central plains, violence is achieving an exalted new status even by this region's bloody standards. Politically motivated beating and burning and killing, never wholly absent from the subcontinent, have become more than spasmodic human failings. They have started to replace hunger strikes, sit-ins and marches as the basic tools of Indian political life: guiltlessly deployed, fatally effective.

Forget what you've heard about Gandhi and nonviolence in India. This is a nation of militias now.

"Only nonviolence cannot work," said Sandeep Deshpanda, 34, vice president of the student wing of MNS. "Some people understand only when you kick them," he added, citing an old Hindi adage.

The MNS has come to symbolize this broader phenomenon. Earlier this year, its leader, Raj Thackeray, fired a verbal fusillade against migrants in Mumbai. Young party cadres fanned out and began to thrash migrants in the streets. Then he went after Mumbai stores that print their sign board in English but not in the local Marathi language.

His party is a minority in the state legislature; he runs no organ of state. Yet, as his cadres began to smash the windows of uncooperative stores, thousands of other stores tacked on Marathi signs. The city's appearance changed overnight.

Thackeray's successes evidently left an impression on 1,900 employees of Jet Airways, who were fired last week thanks to the global financial crisis. They rushed to Thackeray's office. He thundered that no Jet Airways flight would leave Mumbai until the employees were rehired.

If an Indian politician said that a generation ago, it might have been empty bluster. Today, the threat was taken seriously enough that the airline's chairman, Naresh Goyal, held telephone discussions with Thackeray. After Thackeray's and others' lobbying, the employees were rehired the next day.

"It is disturbing that workers of Jet Airways sought the help of the MNS when they were given the pink slip," The Times of India newspaper wrote in an editorial. "It is as if they were contracting the mafia to serve their private needs because they didn't have any other recourse."

Political theorists define sovereignty simply. What separates Jordan from Lebanon is a state monopoly on force. In sovereign countries, militias do not decide who drives taxis and doesn't, who is fired and isn't. If this is the definition, it is difficult to call India wholly sovereign today.

Tata, an Indian conglomerate, decided not long ago to build the world's lowest-cost car in West Bengal State. It got into a land dispute. Good arguments surfaced on each side. But arguments matter ever less. Goaded by yet another state politician without a majority, activists besieged the Tata plant, pelted stones at journalists and threatened workers. Tata left the state.

In an open letter to West Bengal citizens last week, Ratan Tata, chairman of the group, wrote that they face a choice between "a prosperous state with the rule of law" and "a destructive political environment of confrontation, agitation, violence and lawlessness."

Maoist insurgents are firebombing their way through central India, winning control over some destitute areas. The government's response? More violence. Government security forces, in tandem with a vigilante group called Salwa Judum, have, according to Human Rights Watch, engaged in "threats, beatings, arbitrary arrests and detention, killings, pillage, and burning of villages to force residents into supporting Salwa Judum."

Meanwhile, Muslim extremists blow up markets, Hindu extremists slaughter Christians and politicians convene commissions.

Whatever its reputation, India has never exactly been a nation of pacifists. Gandhi represented just one strand of thinking, and his view is not the only one to have prevailed. From Kashmir's jihad to various secessionisms to Hindu-Muslim riots, political violence is as Indian as tandoori chicken. Yet in the past it was generally seen as regrettable by people with power. It was rarely a workaday tactic, the way hunger strikes are a tactic.

But in recent years the hollowing of the Indian political center has allowed violence be mainstreamed. The major national parties draw ever smaller fractions of the vote. Challenging them are caste-based and regional parties that narrowcast to electoral pockets. Factional identities are hardening as citizens "vote their caste rather than cast their vote," as a popular refrain puts it.

This political fragmentation pits tribe against tribe. It has corroded the faith among Indians that the institutions that hear and answer grievances — the police, courts, media — are neutral. All increasingly are seen as biased, answerable to their different masters, rather than impartial executors of the public good. All contribute to a growing sense of powerlessness. And so if you are a leader of a political faction that wants to be heard, it is not irrational to believe you need a militia of violent young men to make yourself heard.

Yasin Malik once commanded a militant group in Kashmir, waging war against India. Fourteen years ago, he surrendered his weapons and declared himself a "Gandhian." This week, he told me he is struggling to recruit a new generation to nonviolence.

"Gandhi is the person who created and gave the concept of nonviolence to the world," he said. "He inspired Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela. But, unfortunately, in India right now Gandhi is no longer relevant."

"I'm in search of Gandhi in the land of Gandhi," he added. "I've failed to find him."

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Money, Votes and Indian Politics

As we are aware the Congress-led UPA government won the vote of confidence in the Parliament last night. The numbers for the government stood at 275 and 256 against, with 10 MP's abstaining. The numbers give away the fact that there was cross voting from both sides, MP's who defied party whip to vote for the other. But for those following newspapers and indulging the predilections of our Honourable MP's, this was only to be expected. Experts, real and imagined, had predicted a significant amount of people crossing over in the days leading to the vote as well as during the voting.

The display of money in the Parliament, by a group of BJP MP's, who alleged that individuals in the UPA alliance offered to bribe them to cross vote, appears to have shocked the country. The media, the political class especially those in the opposition, it appears, have just discovered that money plays a big role in our public life. In the past two decades, we had many instances when our political class has been caught with cash in their hands, a few of these have been recorded on camera. The first allegation was made under similar circumstances when during the 1992 vote of confidence, the incumbent Congress government was accused of bribing the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha MP's for support. Since then, we have had the Tehelka sting operations in which members of the BJP-led NDA alliance were seen accepting money to push for an imaginary defense deal and the most shameful one wherein, Member's of Parliament demanded money to ask questions in the Parliament.

Such reactions on part of the media and the political class are ridiculous. For instance, examine this pretentious and moralist tone adopted by The Times of India in their front paged-editorial interjection titled, "Times View",

"Over the past several days, there's been a flood of stories of MPs on both sides being bribed to switch loyalty. The payoffs are reported to have ranged from Rs 3 crore for abstaining to Rs 25 crore for cross-voting. On Tuesday, when three MPs started to disgorge stacks of money from a bag on the table of the House, allegedly given to them as ‘advance’ for a much larger bribe, our worst suspicions seemed to have been confirmed. We are a nation proud of our democratic traditions. But along the way, our political class has brutally and systematically subverted every institution of democracy to a point where it has all but lost the faith of the people it was meant to serve. If the allegations made in Parliament are true, then the guilty must be made to pay a very serious price. And if they aren’t, it would imply an extremely cynical conspiracy, for which there should be severe retribution, too. The facts need to be established, and exemplary action taken. Anything less would be a betrayal of the nation’s faith in democracy".

It makes one wonder about the origins of such a blighted and ostrich-ed view. The Times of India and its website kept latest updates of who was being wooed and what were the offers made. It would take some stretch of imagination to suggest that The Times of India was not aware that money was not being offered and accepted. Similarly for the political class, it almost seems laughable when one reads about Prakash Karat describing it, as a 'shameful day in Indian democracy'.

This post is not motivated by the desire to justify the bribery but it tries to highlight the double speak of the political class and the hypocrisy of the media. The intervention of money in Indian public life has a long and chequered history. Apart from the instances mentioned above, we have ministers of the government subverting the office for family, friends and lucre. The rot, it is suggested, is deep and all pervading due to the nature of the political system and marshalling of resources needed to participate in the electoral system. As this abstract writes,

"Electioneering is an expensive affair in every democratic polity which plays a more vital role in India. A prospective candidate in each constituency has to spend millions of money towards transport, publicity and other essential items of election campaign. In recent years the election expenses have increased beyond any limits due to the desire on the part of every political party to spend more than their rivals in the fray. Initially the elections were not costly, when the ideals of service and sacrifice were very much in the air. Political leaders and workers considered it unethical to work with a desire for any reward. But scenario now has changed. The elections in Indian polity are becoming increasingly expensive and the gap between the expenses incurred and legally permitted is increasing over the years. The observers are watching the system that requires unbelievably enormous expenditure collected through to dubious means by political parties and their candidates. The adoption of planning and of mixed economy with a large armory of control, regulation, licenses, permits and quotas in free India provided enormous opportunities for political corruption and resulted in an unethical nexus between the electoral politics and the business sector of the country. This seems to be continued even today with more disastrous consequences of an overflow of black money into the corridors of political parties despite the liberalized economy induced to the political system of country" (Sharma and Sharma 2007).

It is also this salience of money that has also lead to the criminalisation of politics. The outrage expressed by the opposition to the use of money is merely to score political points even though it is couched in moral/ethical tones. The concern about the UPA getting support of MP's who have been sentenced in a criminal case is yet another salvo that smacks of the political apathy and opportunism that plagues the ruling class. The CPIM has long partnered Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janta Dal in Bihar and at the national level, the political party which has criminals in its ranks who voted for the government.

Most observers of Indian politics interpret, the deterioration of the quality of Indian public life by communal/caste/criminal and money, as the success of democracy. People from different parts of the country use their respective strengths to make their way into the system and bring grievances, thereby legitimising the system and making it broad based. But this is a highly inefficient form and it imposes heavy costs in the system. There is consensus on the fact that this state of affairs have to change but few have an idea where to begin. And in most circumstances, it is events like the confidence motion or garnering of a majority to form government which subvert the efforts to make a start along the path to cleanse politics. All parties across the political spectrum are part of the rot but they all blame their adversaries. Thus, the opposition's outrage is moral only because morality is politically expedient, especially after the failure of their efforts to dislodge the Congress-led government.

Reference
SHARMA, A. K. and SHARMA, A. (2007, Jan) "Role of Money Power in Politics and Elections : A case of India" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel InterContinental, New Orleans.

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The Nuclear Deal and the Indian Political Bazaar

Today, 22nd July 2008, is the date when the Congress-led UPA government will face a confidence motion to prove its Parliamentary majority. The UPA government earlier supported by a coalition of political parties fell short of majority after the CPIM withdrew support over the Nuclear Deal. The current round of poaching of Members of Parliament (MPs), for the government and against it, is almost dizzying and began with the President asking the government to prove its majority by seeking a vote of confidence in the Parliament.

In calling the bluff of the CPIM which has almost 60 MP's, the government was supposed to have clinched the support of the Samajwadi Party (SP) led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and represented by the eternal fixer, Amar Singh. But the opponents to the government regrouped in two camps, the first was the ascendant BJP-led NDA and the other group formed around the CPIM, with the Telugu Desam Party and buoyed by the confidence of Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). But in Indian politics, the plot never works as it should. The first hiccup in the government's plans came when the SP realised that among its group of 39 MPs, there were a few who changed sides owing to the rising tide of Mayawati politics in Uttar Pradesh. The NDA got all aggressive and loud when it looked like the government was in danger but CPIM's efforts to gather a non-communal group with Mayawati has taken the air out of even the NDA. The last four days leading to the vote of confidence motion saw Mayawati as the crucial factor successfully gathering support from the smaller political groups.

But the entire process has been one of unbelievable greed and opportunism. Each of the formations are using ministerial seats, money and as many incentives as possible to 'poach' members from the opposition. An important variable was the supposed Muslim opposition to the Nuclear deal as it would necessitate closer India-US relations. There have been instances of MP's who have changed their minds and sides, many times after they dipped into their 'conscience', for example, Shahid Siddique, who till the 18th of July was the face of the Samajwadi Party, the voice of the Muslims within the party. And he was the expert on the nuclear deal, someone who expressed full-fledged support for the deal. On 18th July, Siddique defected and joined Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party and slammed the India-US nuclear deal as being "...against our national interest. I was suffocating and under pressure from my community. This deal will only take us into the dark. I will surely join the BSP and will fight for the Muslims and Dalits," Siddiqui, standing next to Mayawati, told journalists.

The point of this post has been the sheer incredulity in the way the political formations are garnering support. Each party and each MP have their own political compulsions as per their regional, ideological and electoral factors not to forget politico-human avarice. It has been an exercise in reiterating for the nation, the criminal opportunism of our political class in its most naked form. The Congress MP from Karnal, Arvind Sharma, on Friday, the dentist-turned politician had, for the first time, attacked the government for "targeting" BSP chief Mayawati, sending Congress managers scrambling to bring him back to the fold. A meeting with Sonia Gandhi was arranged and by Monday morning, Sharma had been "convinced" to rejoin the ranks. But as the debate began in Parliament, Sharma announced that he was back with Mayawati, in effect in two days his politcal journey comprised 'Congress to BSP to Congress to BSP'. Members of Parliament who are in prison secured bail, those sitting in the wilderness suddenly became important, independent MP's over night became cash cows. The windfall had some of the smaller parties undecided, they were torn between the offers of the government and the anti-government formation. Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal with 3 seats in the Parliament was one such party. The Congress government named Lucknow airport after his deceased father and the ex-Prime Minister of India, Chaudhary Charan Singh. But by the weekend, Ajit Singh was sitting in the Mayawati+ CPIM camp who allegedly offered, a cabinet berth in the future Central Government, two ministries in the current UP government and reservation for Jats. One wonders if the Congress will revert back to the original name of the airport.

Similarly is the case of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha which has 5 MP's. The JMM as it is known is led by Jharkhand tribal leader Shibu Soren and their most famous moment came in the 1992 Parliament when a Congress-led coalition had to similarly prove its majority in the Parliament. The Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Sigh was then the Finance Minister and charted India out of the balance of payment crisis with the economic reforms that changed the Hindu Rate of growth to the East Asian one, a jump from the static 3% to about 7-9%. The JMM was supposed to have received money, delivered in suitcases by a stock broker, Harshad Mehta! This time around, the JMM bargained hard and was offered the Chief Minister post of Jharkhand by the NDA in the next state elections as well as cabinet berths but the UPA got him to their side with the offer of a Central government Cabinet Post, Minister of state and the deputy chief minister of Jharkhand for his son.

So while such intricate negotiations were taking place, the newspapers were abuzz with the nuanced details of MP's expressing their support on the basis of 'conscience and national interest' but it was the public and the private goods which dictated their interpretation. The number of offers which could only be cashed at a future date surprised me considering the fast changing political configuration and the lack of staying power of our MP's. The events have also highlighted the decision making predilections of the Indian political system. The Nuclear deal and its merits-demerits have been lost on People's representatives, the deal merely provided an opportunity to the MP's to cash in their potential. The key question is how does one account for such a disconnect between issues affecting the country and the political compulsions that affect our public representatives?

In referring back to an earlier blog post on democracy & development and the need for having a broad based system of funnelling grievances and ambitions into the system, does it mean that this round of political trading also furthers democracy and federalism? Or does it mean that such an exercise while positive on the power sharing makes the system inefficient in the short run but will have benefits in terms of stability of the political system in the longer run and therefore that it is the most effective method for the continuance of its legitimacy? The debate on the Nuclear deal has been lost in affected interpretations of 'national interest' and 'conscience' depending upon the political trajectory of the concerned Member of Parliament. The post-modern ways in which these terms are being used and bandied about, in fact this whole event, is something the political scientists have to translate for the masses in general. For those studying, Indian Politics, this is turning out to be a classic case study in play, follow it closely, it is soon going to be used in classrooms.

I am hoping that the government of India will win this vote of confidence. The Nuclear Deal is a much needed panacea for the ills that are plaguing the country's high end technology sectors. It would also serve to diversify Indian energy resources and perhaps improve energy production owing to the removal of the technology denial regime that limits it. In thinking about the Nuclear Deal, I have realised that it has been wrongly sold as a 'Indo-US' deal, it is anything but that. It is only so much Indo-US because the United States of America being the most powerful actor in the world was the only state capable of building the consensus to help provide this one time exception for India at the National Suppliers Group (NSG), an exclusive group of about 45 countries that controls the export and re-transfer of materials that may be applicable to nuclear weapon development and by improving safeguards and protection on existing materials. Once the deal gets through the IAEA and the NSG, the restrictions facing India as a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will be removed and India can trade and cooperate in nuclear materials with many countries. The largest beneficiaries are going to be the Russians and the French.

For many with empty lives, the current developments have provided a reason to feel alive. One individual kept asking (and I ask that at the end of this post) people what would they have demanded had they been MP's? In reply, someone told him that he would demand that they rename the Congress Party after him! The illegal betting industry has also gone in over drive betting on the odds of survival for the government and as newspaper reports suggest are willing to pay upto over Indian Rupees 35 crore per MP to influence the results. Yet another ex-comrade from JNU, a politics-eating-drinking place, demanded that like cricket and football matches, the vote showed be telecast live in the campus and in the bars of city, sponsored by Pepsi or Coke. Satire, never had it so good, one doubts, if professional cartoonist have a bigger-better bunch of jokers to lampoon.

Imagine you are an honourable Member of the Indian Parliament due to vote on the confidence motion for the Congress led UPA government. In order to leave your baser instincts intact, when it comes to making your informed choices, in 'national interest', of course, we will suggest you are an independent member.

The different political formations approach you to garner support. It is a give and take situation, you give your vote and they will listen to your demands and try to fulfill them.

In the comments section, you are encouraged to quote your price, feel free. This is the mother of all vote bazaars in the largest democracy in the world.

Sample these new Acronym's as reported by The Times of India:
UPA: United Poachers Association
BSP: Buying Samajwadi Party
SP: Service Provider
NDA: Non-Delivery Agents
CPM: Cross-Party Manoeuvres

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